US or Iran: Who will win the Hormuz endurance game?

Deadlocked, dysfunctional and dangerous. That is how the Strait of Hormuz standoff is increasingly being described. Now approaching its fourth month, the crisis off Iran's coast is marked by mutual blockades.

Tehran has been charging ships up to $2 million (€1.73 million) for safe passage through the strait, while the United States enforces a naval embargo, turning back vessels carrying Iranian oil exports. These competing blockades have failed to deliver decisive results. Some Iranian ships continue to slip through, while several Asian shipping firms have agreed to pay tolls, despite such fees violating international maritime law. Fragile negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen Hormuz have, meanwhile, stuttered several times, sparking the risk of escalation into a wider regional conflict . Yet, despite Pakistan-led mediation efforts and a proposed one-page memorandum aimed at ending hostilities and reopening Hormuz, neither side appears ready to blink first. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Washington-based think tank Gulf International Forum (GIF), believes Trump’s on-off military threats — intended to increase its leverage over Iran — may have backfired. "The Iranian response suggests the opposite," Thafer told DW. "They interpret it as the US lacking the will to escalate the war." US President Donald Trump is facing increasing pressure both at home and abroad to avoid further military action, with Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia , the United Arab Emirates and Qatar urging restraint. Surging oil prices and rising domestic inflation are adding political heat ahead of the US mid-term elections in November. Can Iran control flow of data along with flow of oil? To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Iran, meanwhile, is losing some $435 million per day in trade, nearly two-thirds of which comes from exports of mainly crude oil, Miad Maleki, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), estimated in April. This means that with the US blockade stretching to 39 days on Friday, Iran's public finances have already suffered an estimated $17 billion loss.

Key points

• Tehran has been charging ships up to $2 million (€1.73 million) for safe passage through the strait, while the United States enforces a naval embargo, turning back vessels carrying Iranian oil expo…
• These competing blockades have failed to deliver decisive results.
• Some Iranian ships continue to slip through, while several Asian shipping firms have agreed to pay tolls, despite such fees violating international maritime law.
• Fragile negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen Hormuz have, meanwhile, stuttered several times, sparking the risk of escalation into a wider regional conflict .
• Yet, despite Pakistan-led mediation efforts and a proposed one-page memorandum aimed at ending hostilities and reopening Hormuz, neither side appears ready to blink first.