The ruling United Russia party received the first spot on ballots in 21 of 39 regions, a result the Yabloko party claims is statistically improbable.
Key facts
- •United Russia holds the top ballot spot in 21 out of 39 regions scheduled for September 2026 elections.
- •Yabloko party analyst Ivan Bolshakov calculated the probability of this distribution as 0.00000378%.
- •Bolshakov compared the likelihood of this ballot result to winning the Russian state lottery, Sportloto.
- •The Yabloko party was previously removed from the State Duma election race by the Russian Supreme Court.
The United Russia party secured the top position on ballots in 21 of the 39 regions holding regional parliamentary elections in September 2026. The Yabloko party, which reported these figures, characterized the outcome as a significant statistical anomaly.
By the numbers
Statistical Analysis of Ballot Placement
Ivan Bolshakov, the head of Yabloko’s analytical center, stated that the probability of United Russia achieving this result through a fair drawing process is 0.00000378%. He noted that such an outcome represents a major deviation from the norm, suggesting that the result is statistically unlikely if all participants had equal chances.
Historical Context and Previous Elections
United Russia also secured the top ballot position for elections to the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament. In that instance, the Yabloko party was assigned the second position before being removed from the race by the Russian Supreme Court.
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This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Meduza (English).
