The U.S. government is intensifying sanctions and rhetoric against Cuba, leading experts to suggest the administration may be establishing a pretext for military intervention.

The Trump administration is ramping up efforts to portray Cuba as a national security threat, raising concerns that the White House is preparing for military action. This strategy follows a period of economic pressure, including a recent oil blockade that has caused nationwide blackouts in Cuba. On Thursday, the State Department announced new sanctions, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio describing the Cuban regime as a multifaceted threat to U.S. security.

Escalating Rhetoric and Sanctions

The administration recently released a 100-page report characterizing Cuba as the center of a hemispheric network aimed at subverting the United States. While the report acknowledges Cuba's economic challenges and military inferiority in a conventional conflict, it warns that Havana serves as a staging ground for anti-American interests involving Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. Beyond the oil blockade, the administration has unsealed an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro and alleged co-conspirators. President Trump also stated in mid-July that the U.S. is investigating the potential presence of Iranian drones on the island.

Expert Comparisons to Venezuela

Foreign policy experts suggest these actions mirror the pattern used by the U.S. prior to the January raid that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Benjamin Gedan, director of the Stimson Center’s Latin America program, noted that the administration is employing a strategy of testing various justifications, such as intelligence-gathering concerns and human rights issues, to build a case for intervention. Former U.S. national intelligence officer Fulton Armstrong echoed this assessment, stating that the current approach toward Cuba is consistent with the methods used during the operation against Venezuela.