Russia is attempting to replace its aging Western-made commercial fleet with the domestic MC-21 jet, but industry experts warn that production delays and economic pressures limit its viability.

President Vladimir Putin recently inspected the MC-21 passenger jet at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant, a project Moscow intends to use to replace its aging fleet of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Following Western sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, the aircraft required a redesign to incorporate Russian-made components. These changes have resulted in a heavier, more expensive plane that experts argue will not be produced in sufficient numbers to reverse the decline of Russia's civil aviation sector.

Production and Economic Challenges

The MC-21 is currently being produced at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant, which also manufactures Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets. The head of the plant, Andrei Soynov, informed Putin that four aircraft are expected to be completed by the end of 2026 for transfer to Aeroflot. However, the use of domestic components has increased the weight of the plane by approximately six metric tons, preventing it from flying its originally planned nonstop route from Moscow to Vladivostok. Costs for the project have also risen significantly. In June, the government increased the projected cost for the first 18 localized MC-21 aircraft to 96.1 billion rubles ($1.2 billion), up from 58.3 billion rubles ($730 million). Industry insiders suggest that the aircraft remains roughly 15 years behind foreign competitors and is unlikely to become a mass-produced solution for the industry.

Aviation Industry Outlook

Russia’s aviation sector faces ongoing challenges, including a shortage of qualified labor and the need to maintain existing Western-made planes through improvised supply chains and cannibalization of parts. While some airline staff report that safety standards are being maintained, independent observers note that reported malfunctions have increased, reaching 300 in 2024. Industry sources indicate that the sector is contracting and becoming increasingly isolated, with a growing reliance on domestic routes. Experts warn that even if the MC-21 enters service, the industry may face future bankruptcies as airlines struggle with the economic viability of operating less fuel-efficient domestic aircraft.