Industry forecasts indicate a sharp decline in diesel and petrol prices in Portugal beginning next week.

Fuel prices in Portugal are expected to drop significantly starting August 10, according to projections from the Automobile Club of Portugal (ACP). Forecasts suggest a decrease of approximately 12 cents per litre for diesel and 12.5 cents per litre for petrol.

Projected Price Adjustments

If current forecasts hold, the average price of diesel is expected to fall to 1.931 euros per litre, while petrol is projected to reach 1.855 euros per litre. These estimates are based on crude oil market data from the previous Thursday and remain subject to change based on market fluctuations through the end of the week.

Market Context and Pricing

Current average prices, as reported by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG), stand at 2.051 euros per litre for diesel and 1.980 euros per litre for 95-octane unleaded petrol. These figures reflect weighted averages from filling stations, including various discounts. Because the fuel sector in Portugal is liberalized, actual prices at individual stations may vary.

External Factors and Government Policy

Fuel prices continue to be influenced by instability in the Middle East, specifically military actions involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for 20% of global oil and gas, has contributed to price volatility. In response, the Portuguese government maintains an extraordinary, temporary cut in the ISP fuel tax to mitigate price surges, which may lead to further adjustments in final consumer prices.