The UN warns that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, exceeding the 1.5°C threshold.
Key facts
- •There is a 75% chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
- •There is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree mark.
- •There is an 86% chance that one year will surpass the current record for Earth's hottest year, set in 2024.
- •The Arctic region is projected to warm about 3.5 times faster than the global average over the next five years.
- •The Amazon basin is expected to experience hotter and drier conditions, while Africa's Sahel region is expected to receive above-average rainfall.
- •UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the findings show that efforts to curb global warming are still falling short.
The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization projects that global temperatures will remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with a 75% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold. The report was produced with the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office. The threshold was established under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
Climate Projections
Researchers found a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree mark and an 86% chance that one year will surpass the current record for Earth's hottest year, set in 2024. The projections are based on about 200 computer simulations using 13 climate models developed by research institutions around the world.
Consequences of Warming
Scientists warn that even small increases in global temperatures can have major consequences, including extreme heat, biodiversity loss, and damage to vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs and glaciers. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said sustained warming above the threshold could bring weather extremes beyond what many communities have previously experienced.
Regional Impacts
The report highlights the role of El Niño, a natural climate pattern associated with warmer ocean temperatures in the central Pacific. The Arctic region is projected to warm about 3.5 times faster than the global average over the next five years. The Amazon basin is expected to experience hotter and drier conditions, while Africa's Sahel region is expected to receive above-average rainfall.
This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by Greek Reporter.
