A new study suggests rising temperatures could eliminate malaria in West and Central Africa while increasing cases in cooler, high-elevation regions.
Key facts
- •Malaria caused an estimated 610,000 deaths across 80 countries in 2024.
- •Researchers analyzed data from over 50,000 surveys conducted between 1900 and 2016.
- •Between 2010 and 2014, human-caused climate change resulted in one additional malaria case per 1,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa.
- •The study suggests that global emissions reductions could help curb the projected rise of malaria in cooler African regions.
- •Public health investments are considered a primary factor in malaria elimination, according to researchers.
A modelling study indicates that extreme heat caused by climate change may eradicate malaria in West and Central Africa by the end of the century. While rising temperatures could make these regions less hospitable to mosquitoes, the disease is expected to become more prevalent in cooler, high-elevation areas of the continent. Researchers suggest the overall burden of the disease is shifting rather than disappearing.
By the numbers
Impact of Rising Temperatures
Laboratory tests show that malaria transmission is highest at 26 degrees Celsius, with mosquitoes thriving between 16 and 34 degrees Celsius. Under high greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, which could lead to a 2.4 degree Celsius global temperature rise, models project 45 fewer malaria cases per 1,000 children in West Africa by 2100 compared to 2015-2020 levels. Central African nations, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, could see 16 fewer cases per 1,000.
Shifting Risks to Cooler Regions
The study identifies Kenya, Burundi, Angola, Zambia, and northeastern South Africa as areas where malaria prevalence may rise due to their cooler, high-elevation climates. These regions often have less investment in malaria prevention strategies like vaccines and bed nets, and populations may have lower acquired immunity to the parasites. Experts note that public health infrastructure remains a critical factor in controlling transmission regardless of climate shifts.
Advertisement
This article was independently rewritten by ManyPress editorial AI from reporting originally published by New Scientist.
