Can Coco—or Aryna—Win This Year’s French Open? Your 2026 Preview

The most compelling narrative of this year’s French Open, which kicked off yesterday, may well be the story of who isn’t here. Carlos Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion at Roland Garros—including his stunning comeback in last year’s five-and-a-half-hour epic against Jannik Sinner, the longest final in the tournament’s history—will not be swinging for the fences on the terre battue of Paris this year. A right-wrist injury forced the world number-two to withdraw (he’s since announced that he

Gone too is France’s Arthur Fils, the home-crowd favorite, who pulled out on the eve of the tournament with an unspecified injury, along with England’s Jack Draper, Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti, and Dane Holger Rune. The top women, on the other hand, are all here—but interestingly, there’s no clear and dominant favorite (which, hopefully, will make for a dynamic fortnight). Instead, we have world number-one Aryna Sabalenka , number-two Elena Rybakina, three-time champion Iga Swiatek at third seed, and defending champion Coco Gauff seeded fourth—none of whom won a title in the traditional clay warm-up tournaments in Madrid or Rome. Gauff is the defending champion and, merely on her clay-court pedigree, the most credible threat to repeat. She beat Sabalenka in three grueling sets last year to claim the title, but will need to rely on her astounding resilience if she ends up playing a semifinal against her this year, as Sabalenka has (with, yes, notable exceptions) been devouring opponents lately and seems super hungry for her first French title. Swiatek remains, as she has so often lately, the wildcard. Her four French titles make her the most decorated active player here, but her path through the draw is complicated. She could face Jelena Ostapenko—who delights in upsetting high-ranked opponents and who holds a 6-0 head-to-head advantage over Swiatek—as early as the third round. Rybakina, meanwhile, already has a Grand Slam (the Australian Open) in her pocket this year, though she’s never been past the quarterfinals here. Other players to watch: Madrid champion Elina Svitolina, Rome champion Marta Kostyuk of Ukraine—who gave a powerful, tearful speech after her opening-match win yesterday, noting that she learned just before stepping out onto the court that her family home in Kyiv was a mere 100 meters away from a Russian missile strike earlier that day—and the ever-dangerous Mirra Andreeva (provided she can keep her composure). On the men’s side, the departure of Alcaraz has led many to suggest that the engravers may as well start carving Jannik Sinner’s name into the trophy right now. The world number-one is the overwhelming favorite (and winning at Roland Garros would also complete his career Grand Slam).

Key points

• Gone too is France’s Arthur Fils, the home-crowd favorite, who pulled out on the eve of the tournament with an unspecified injury, along with England’s Jack Draper, Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti, and Dan…
• The top women, on the other hand, are all here—but interestingly, there’s no clear and dominant favorite (which, hopefully, will make for a dynamic fortnight).
• Instead, we have world number-one Aryna Sabalenka , number-two Elena Rybakina, three-time champion Iga Swiatek at third seed, and defending champion Coco Gauff seeded fourth—none of whom won a titl…
• Gauff is the defending champion and, merely on her clay-court pedigree, the most credible threat to repeat.
• She beat Sabalenka in three grueling sets last year to claim the title, but will need to rely on her astounding resilience if she ends up playing a semifinal against her this year, as Sabalenka has…